With each team having played in twelve games so far in 2019, we’re about to enter the fourth quarter of the NFL regular season. While that still means a full quarter left to play, a lot has come into focus, including the general pecking order of teams and their relative strengths. Using the PowerIndexed consensus NFL Power Ratings, we can also start to gain some greater confidence in the Power Ratings Derived (PRD) expected spreads.
How do PowerIndexed PRD spreads work?
There is an accepted theory that states that the expected spread between two teams playing on a neutral field would be the difference in their normalized power ratings. If we adjust for home-field advantage, we can then get to a true expected NFL spread, and by extension, NFL odds.
Week 14 Spreads Comparison
Below is the consensus for a selection of notable media Power Rankings. Using PowerIndexed’s normalization model, this translates to the following consensus Power Ratings: